iPad on Pace to Outsell Mac This Year?

A key question asked during the run-up to the release of Apple's iPad was whether or not it would eat into Windows-based netbook sales. While it's not clear how many would-be netbook buyers Apple is winning over, the iPad is apparently cannibalizing Apple's own laptop sales.

Six weeks into the product's release, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky released a report saying that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is selling about 200,000 iPads a week, almost double the 110,000 Macs sold and within sight of the 246,000 iPhones sold in the same period. That data only applies to the U.S. At the current rate of sales, Abramsky expects Apple to sell eight million iPads this year, much higher than his previous estimate of five million in 2010 and millions more than projected Mac sales for this year.

"Checks indicate that U.S. iPad sales remain strong post-launch, driven by rising consumer visibility to iPad’s user experience, sustained PR/word-of-mouth marketing, 3G iPad launch, and broadening iPad apps/content," Abramsky said in a note to clients.

That number is more impressive when you consider the supply of tablets has been constrained from launch and the iPad has yet to go on sale outside the U.S. The Mac is sold internationally and has had no supply problems. In its most recent quarter, Apple sold 2.94 million Macs, which comes out to one million per month, or 250,000 per week. Abramsky's weekly average is considerably less than that prior average, but one month's sample cannot necessarily be annualized, since even Apple is prone to seasonal swings.

Being a financial analyst, Abramsky also noted that the iPad is selling with a large amount of peripherals and extras, which have a higher margin and mean more profit for Apple. He raised full-year estimates from $58.3 billion to $59.7 billion and earnings per share of $13.40, up from $13.06.

Apple announced in early May that it sold one million of the Wi-Fi-only iPads after the first month of sales and another 300,000 of the 3G units.

The iPad certainly has a price advantage, $499 vs. $999 for the cheapest MacBook. But Apple has not marketed the iPad as a computer replacement but as a new device category sitting in between a smartphone and a computer.

iPad Buyers in Waiting?

It seems that interest in the iPad is growing as people use it. A new survey by ChangeWave found growing interest and strong loyalty among those who bought the tablet. In a May survey of 3,174 consumers to measure future demand for the iPad, ChangeWave found 7 percent very likely to buy an iPad, and 13 percent somewhat likely. What vendor wouldn't love to have one in five people ready to buy their product?

As part of the survey, 245 respondents identified themselves as currently owning an e-reader. When asked which e-reader they owned, 62 percent said Amazon's Kindle, but in second place was the iPad at 16 percent. After one month of availability, that's a fast start.

Half of iPad owners who use the device as an e-reader said they read newspapers on their tablet compared to just 14 percent of all other e-reader owners, and 38 percent of iPad e-reader users said they read magazines compared to 11 percent of all other e-reader owners.

ChangeWave asked the new iPad owners how satisfied they were with their device. Three in four, 74 percent, said very satisfied, and another 17 percent said somewhat satisfied. Screen size and quality topped the list of what they liked the most, followed by ease of use, size and weight, and portability. The number-one thing they disliked was the lack of Flash support.

Andy Patrizio is a senior editor at InternetNews.com, the news service of Internet.com, the network for technology professionals.