The Last Days of Discrete Graphics?

The discrete graphics processor has long been a significant force in the PC marketplace, second only to the CPU in terms of overall impact. From its humble beginnings as basic 2D products from Matrox, S3 and ATI, to the explosion that was the 3dfx Voodoo, and then finally to the integrated 2D/3D accelerators of today, discrete graphics have been a major driver in PC development.

Enthusiasts kicked sand in the face of entry-level 2D video cards, and laughed at how weak and ineffectual onboard graphics were in face of demanding tasks like 3D games and applications. This was the time of the 3D dinosaurs, when long-forgotten GPUs from 3dfx, S3, Rendition, PowerVR, Matrox, Nvidia, and ATI ruled the Earth.

The marketplace has changed dramatically since those halcyon days of yore, and most of the company names listed above no longer exist. Desktops are being replaced by laptops, while netbooks, tablets and smart phones are nipping at their heels. On-chip GPUs also threaten the status quo and over the next few years, the dedicated video card is in danger of becoming superfluous to the majority of PC users.

The Shrinking Desktop

While the overall graphics market continues to grow at a healthy pace, the percentage of desktops sold has dropped. In the past, discrete graphics represented well over half of the overall market, but that has shrunk to under 30 percent, and this figure also includes notebook GPUs. Discrete graphic share is also declining in the mobile market, but in the last quarter, AMD surprisingly sold almost 2 million more discrete mobile GPUs than it did desktop.

The rise and fall of PC gaming is also a major factor in the shift away from more powerful discrete video cards and GPUs. In its heyday, the PC used to own the gaming market, but other than the odd MMORPGs like World of Warcraft, game development on the PC has virtually ground to a halt.

Critics point a finger at a variety of causes, such as piracy, expensive graphics cards and the difficulty in programming for multiple configurations, but the fact remains that there are few PC-centric titles being published. PC gamers are now forced to live off repetitive console game ports from the popular Xbox 360 and PS3 platforms, many of which do not even get a PC version.

Many blame Microsoft itself, as the latest games in their popular Halo and Gears of War franchises were Xbox 360-exclusives. Gaming has definitely shifted from the desktop to the living room and that spells danger for discrete GPU sales.

The On-Die GPU Future is Here

The AMD Fusion design represents the future of the PC, with both the CPU and GPU integrated onto a single die. Intel also sells a Clarkdale version of the integrated CPU/GPU and will continue to refine this technology with Sandy Bridge, but due to its ATI roots and DirectX 11 compatibility, AMD Fusion still has the definite edge here.

AMD is expected to announce its latest Fusion chip at the upcoming CES, and the company is not holding back on the GPU end of things. Instead of adding a low-end graphics processor to the mix, AMD will using a more mainstream Redwood core based on a Radeon HD 5600 variant. This is currently a mainstream GPU for desktops and when coupled to a fast quad-core processor, this latest Fusion should provide adequate performance for the majority of PC users.

It also could spell an end to AMD’s traditional discrete GPU roadmap, as there would be no reason to continue producing most entry-level and mainstream graphics cards, at least at the OEM level. Manufacturers like Dell or HP looking to produce AMD-based desktops would surely take the Fusion route over a dedicated entry-level card that not only sports lower performance, but also costs more.

This is also the first generation of Fusion desktop products and designs should only get better going forward. This will result in even faster GPUs on higher-end CPUs, which serves AMD’s business plan quite well. Remember, AMD is competing against both Intel and Nvidia, so a Fusion sale takes market share away from both sides.

Continuing the GPU Arms Race

None of this has stopped AMD and Nvidia from maintaining their blistering development schedule, with each one ramping up a new discrete GPU at an alarming frequency. In December alone, AMD introduced the powerful Radeon HD 6900 series, while Nvidia unveiled its GeForce GTX 570. Early in 2011, we should get a look at the GeForce GTX 560 and AMD’s latest dual-chip Radeon HD 6990 powerhouse.

This development race certainly has its risks, as today’s hottest discrete GPU can quickly become tomorrow’s mainstream card, with significant price drops to match. It can also create a glut of cards in the mid-level, with clearance pricing or mail-in rebates needed to move retail stock. It also adds stress to buyers, who need to constantly upgrade just to keep up with the Joneses.

Another issue is the extreme power and heat requirements that result from AMD and Nvidia constantly trying to outdo each other. To extract the highest performance possible, these top-end cards are pushed to the very limit and then require substantial cooling apparatus. This often results in a bulky, power-guzzling, noisy design that only a true enthusiast could love. Add in the ability to use multiple cards in tandem and the situation can get much worse.

Even the desktop case itself has gotten larger, mostly to accommodate these behemoth video cards, and current enthusiast models continue to push the envelope in terms of size and ambient noise levels. With other PC devices getting smaller, faster and cooler, this is the opposite direction of where desktop PC design should be going.

The Great GPGPU Hope

Discrete graphics processors do have some notable advantages over onboard video, with higher performance and a greater feature set being the most obvious. The primary challenge with a high-end discrete GPU is finding something for it to do, especially as traditional tasks are not the selling points they used to be. As hardcore gaming moves to the consoles, that leaves AMD and Nvidia with the challenge of giving us additional reasons to buy a $700 graphics card.

The GPGPU, or General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit, is one area that AMD and Nvidia hope will inject new life into the discrete video card market. This functionality allows the GPU to perform tasks normally reserved for the CPU, but with some definite limitations. The GPGPU can only supplement the CPU and perform many of the same functions, but cannot replace it.

The concept is a very sound one, as most desktop systems have powerful GPUs that do nothing most of the time. Transitioning that immense GPU power to help standard processing jobs is an interesting angle to pursue, but so far, it has not moved past the niche market phase, at least on desktops. The potential exists to speed up anything from traditional business programs to video encoding, but we have seen little in the way of mass-market applications.

Many are predicting the demise of discrete graphics, but most surprising of all is the rallying call from the PC enthusiast camp. Many are fed up with the ever-increasing size and power consumption of top-end video cards, as well as the constant expense of upgrades. These users simply want a GPU that is "fast enough" to run games, do folding and support GPGPU functions, all without breaking the bank.

Jon Peddie Research also agrees with these sentiments, and a recent report states that the upcoming wave of integrated CPU/GPU products will create an inflection point that will transform the entire marketplace. These predictions include a decline in discrete graphics sales, not just market share, which will continue into 2015. Advantages in price, size, weight, power consumption, and thermals are some of the reasons given for this shift towards on-chip graphics.

There are several historical precedents, with PC audio being one. Back in the day, there were many different audio processors and a host of vendors selling slightly different sound cards, but once onboard audio reached a certain level of performance and features, that market died out for all but the most demanding users. Chipsets are another, with most of their traditional functionality now residing on the CPU. Although it will not happen overnight, discrete graphics processors look to be heading in the same direction.